GenAI Filmmaking: 7 Predictions
I am not an expert in GenAI filmmaking. But I guess the cool part about times like these is that NOBODY is an expert. We’re all learning/inventing/jerry-rigging as we go, and you should probably keep your wallet out of reach of anyone who claims otherwise 😄
I do however, spend about half of my week on calls or in work sessions trying to dig into new tools and assess their viability and trajectory…and I have had some decent success with GenAI shorts…so here’s my prediction for where all this stuff is going in the near term, and what you should lean into TODAY.
And before (or after) you read, take a moment to check out my latest short! It’s a holiday comedy for grown folks:
And now…in no particular order:
1. As with any new tech or toolset, early adopters likely won’t be indicative of the future. Right now, the GenAI videos you’re seeing are mostly being made by creative technologists who are excited about the advances on the tech side. Once the tools become ubiquitous and drift into the background, that will change. And we’ll throw out process terms like “GenAI film” just like we threw out “CGI Animation” or “Videography”.
2. Broad adoption of local tools and private training will bring AI video workflows into your friendly neighborhood studio, but this will require some new roles + jobs (AI creating jobs!). Someone needs to build and maintain the stack/pipeline/UI/training and QA protocols that will allow traditional storytellers to actually use this stuff to its current potential.
3. Cloud tools are absolutely ready for previz, b roll and even some nice effects (at least for small screens). The gotcha on this (in the US) is always IP, but that is a problem that is being broadly addressed this very minute.
4. There is a massive appetite for time, cost and pain reducing tools in an entertainment industry where budgets are shrinking, algorithms are misfiring, and audiences are fickle. Everyone will tell you otherwise, but…bruh.
5. On the other hand, there is so much resistance and fear (way more than film vs digital or CGI vs practical) that traditional filmmakers have to meet in the shadows for now to discuss GenAI. I’ve never seen two groups (one with story instincts, motion experience and visual vocabulary, and one with a toolset to 10x output) more averse to collaboration 😄
6. The breakthrough media will be either a collaboration based on using the best tools to tell the best story and leveraging a trad/tech crew with diverse skillsets (you know, filmmaking) OR it will be some kid in a basement in a neighborhood like mine who lands a grassroots hit.
7. The big full production opportunities for independents this very second are in comedy and family. All of the early adopters are trying to make poignant, epic films with limited tools, and it’s a tough climb. In comedy and family, the limitations of the medium are often either overlooked or add to the charm. Your kids don’t care how flat a cartoon looks. Increased speed means more timely comedy. South Park doesn’t need to look like The Avengers…and it might be less funny if it did.
